{"id":15217,"date":"2024-01-08T11:44:17","date_gmt":"2024-01-08T11:44:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/?p=15217"},"modified":"2024-01-08T11:57:10","modified_gmt":"2024-01-08T11:57:10","slug":"est-il-possible-datteindre-532-000-devoilement-de-la-derniere-prediction-audacieuse-de-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/est-il-possible-datteindre-532-000-devoilement-de-la-derniere-prediction-audacieuse-de-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Est-il possible d&rsquo;atteindre 532 000 $? D\u00e9voilement de la derni\u00e8re pr\u00e9diction audacieuse de Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La R\u00e9surgence du Mod\u00e8le Stock-to-Flow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Avec le prix du Bitcoin qui se maintient fermement au-dessus de 40 000 $ pendant une p\u00e9riode prolong\u00e9e, des mod\u00e8les de tarification pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment rejet\u00e9s, en particulier le Stock-to-Flow (S2F), ont refait surface avec une vigueur renouvel\u00e9e. Le mod\u00e8le S2F, introduit par l&rsquo;analyste anonyme connu sous le nom de \u00ab\u00a0PlanB\u00a0\u00bb, a fait un retour remarquable avec une pr\u00e9diction a udacieuse : un prix du Bitcoin de 532 000 $ apr\u00e8s le halving de 2024. Cette pr\u00e9vision, bien que accueillie avec scepticisme par beaucoup, a relanc\u00e9 les discussions sur la valeur future du Bitcoin et la fiabilit\u00e9 du mod\u00e8le.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"ast-oembed-container \" style=\"height: 100%;\"><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.<br><br>In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.<br><br>Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible.<\/p>&mdash; PlanB (@100trillionUSD) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/100trillionUSD\/status\/1743944875819552899?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">January 7, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Le mod\u00e8le S2F, publi\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois en mars 2019, \u00e9value la valeur du Bitcoin en fonction de sa raret\u00e9, en tenant compte du taux de nouvelle offre par rapport au stock actuel. Les tendances r\u00e9centes ont vu le prix du Bitcoin se r\u00e9aligner avec la trajectoire S2F, sugg\u00e9rant un potentiel march\u00e9 haussier \u00e0 l&rsquo;horizon. Cependant, les critiques se souviennent des surestimations pass\u00e9es, comme la pr\u00e9diction de 2021 d&rsquo;un prix de 135 000 $ qui est tomb\u00e9e \u00e0 court, le Bitcoin ayant atteint un pic \u00e0 69 000 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"ast-oembed-container \" style=\"height: 100%;\"><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">From the bear market lows, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">#bitcoin<\/a> price has now climbed back to the Stock-to-Flow line. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uKrDiSJcWB\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">pic.twitter.com\/uKrDiSJcWB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PositiveCrypto\/status\/1742499087377633641?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">January 3, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comprendre le Mod\u00e8le Stock-to-Flow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Le mod\u00e8le Stock-to-Flow est ancr\u00e9 dans le concept de raret\u00e9 qui g\u00e9n\u00e8re de la valeur. Il compare le stock total d&rsquo;une marchandise (dans ce cas, le Bitcoin) \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9coulement de la nouvelle production (bitcoins min\u00e9s). La r\u00e9surgence du mod\u00e8le n&rsquo;est pas seulement un t\u00e9moignage de l&rsquo;attrait durable du Bitcoin, mais refl\u00e8te \u00e9galement l&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat croissant des investisseurs institutionnels pour la cryptomonnaie en tant que classe d&rsquo;actifs l\u00e9gitime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cependant, les surestimations pass\u00e9es du mod\u00e8le ont suscit\u00e9 une bonne dose de scepticisme. Les critiques font valoir que, bien que le mod\u00e8le tienne compte de la raret\u00e9, il n\u00e9glige d&rsquo;autres dynamiques de march\u00e9 cruciales telles que les changements r\u00e9glementaires, les avanc\u00e9es technologiques et les facteurs \u00e9conomiques plus larges qui influencent significativement le prix du Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Une Perspective \u00c9quilibr\u00e9e sur l&rsquo;Avenir du Bitcoin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>De mon point de vue, bien que le mod\u00e8le S2F offre un aper\u00e7u intrigant de la valeur potentielle du Bitcoin bas\u00e9e sur la raret\u00e9, il est crucial d&rsquo;aborder ses pr\u00e9dictions avec une perspective \u00e9quilibr\u00e9e. Le march\u00e9 des cryptomonnaies est notoirement volatile, influenc\u00e9 par une myriade de facteurs au-del\u00e0 de la raret\u00e9. Les changements r\u00e9glementaires, le sentiment du march\u00e9, les avanc\u00e9es technologiques et les conditions \u00e9conomiques mondiales jouent tous un r\u00f4le significatif dans la d\u00e9termination du prix du Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D&rsquo;une part, la r\u00e9surgence du mod\u00e8le et le regain d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat des investisseurs institutionnels soulignent la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 croissante et le potentiel du Bitcoin en tant qu&rsquo;investissement \u00e0 long terme. D&rsquo;autre part, les surestimations pass\u00e9es du mod\u00e8le servent de mise en garde, nous rappelant la nature impr\u00e9visible du march\u00e9 des cryptomonnaies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En conclusion, bien que la pr\u00e9diction de 532 000 $ du mod\u00e8le S2F soit une perspective excitante pour les enthousiastes du Bitcoin, il est essentiel de consid\u00e9rer le contexte plus large du march\u00e9 et d&rsquo;aborder de telles pr\u00e9dictions avec un optimisme prudent. L&rsquo;avenir du Bitcoin, tout en prometteur, reste un chapitre non \u00e9crit, rempli de potentiel mais aussi d&rsquo;incertitude.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La R\u00e9surgence du Mod\u00e8le Stock-to-Flow Avec le prix du Bitcoin qui se maintient fermement au-dessus de 40 000 $ pendant une p\u00e9riode prolong\u00e9e, des mod\u00e8les de tarification pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment rejet\u00e9s, en particulier le Stock-to-Flow (S2F), ont refait surface avec une vigueur renouvel\u00e9e. Le mod\u00e8le S2F, introduit par l&rsquo;analyste anonyme connu sous le nom de \u00ab\u00a0PlanB\u00a0\u00bb, a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":15196,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[62,63],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-5","category-crypto-5"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15217"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15217"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15217\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15218,"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15217\/revisions\/15218"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lunu.io\/news\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}